Data Driven Decision Making
In order to complete the assignment, first read the case write-up for the “Las Vegas” case (I will attach the case below). Then follow the individual case study analysis requirement document and answer the questions listed below for each part of the case. Part 1 refers to an executive summary, problem statement, and recommendations (I’ve already completed this part and will attach). Part 2 questions refer to the specific forecasting methods. Part 3 questions refer to analysis using MAD, MSE and other error methods.
Your answers must be entered directly into this Word document below each question. Insert each answer below each question on this document and use as much space as needed. Some questions require the revision, or analysis of an Excel spreadsheet. Submit your completed Word document and the Excel spreadsheets . You may submit additional Excel spreadsheets if you feel they are necessary to support your answers.
Answer Questions 1a through 1b below:
Question 1a: What are the challenges for Denis to get accurate forecasts? What are some of the reasons for this?
Question 1b: What can Denis do to improve his forecast in the future?
Answer Questions 2a through 2e below:
Question 2: Describe the details of each forecasting method used in the attached Excel sheets (MAD value) in comparison with the accuracy of the other methods. You will need to check the excel worksheets and if the forecast has not been created, you might have to create it yourself!
2a) Last Value
2b) Averaging
2c) Moving Average (How many periods is shown and how many should you use?)
2d) Exponential Smoothing (alpha = 0.1)
2e) Exponential Smoothing (alpha = 0.5)
The Forecast for November 2012 was 3,352,224.8
Answer Questions 3a through 3d below:
Question 3a: Look at the Las Vegas Solution file and look at the Annual Plot worksheet. Then look at the Regression chart sheet. Why does looking at the data monthly cause us concern?
Explain!
Question 3b: Look at the Rankings Worksheet. The manager has reviewed 3 different methods and used 3 different error methods, Mean Error (Not MAD), MSE and MAPE to evaluate the 3 different methods.
Explain the value of using the Mean Error instead of the MAD!
Question 3c: Based on the ME, MSE and MAPE for the 3 different methods shown in the Rankings worksheet, which method would you recommend. Define a weakness and strength of each method, based on the ME, MSE and MAPE and total forecast of population for the year.
Question 3d: Considering your answers to Questions 3a, 3b and 3c and all the factors that have been described above, prepare your best forecast for December 2012. Show your forecast value below and explain and justify how you came up with this forecast.
Population
- Forecast for December 2012 (My forecast): _________________
Explanation and Justification of Your Method:
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